Market demand analysis of rare earth luminescent materials in China

(a) the change of market demand for energy-saving lamps
1. The trend of energy-saving lamps replacing incandescent lamps and halogen powder lamps is significant
In view of the outstanding functions of energy-saving lamps in terms of light efficiency and longevity, a number of countries and regions around the world have successively launched programs to stop the use of incandescent lamps and promote the use of energy-saving lamps in recent years under the background of global response to climate change and power shortage. From the global perspective, the development trend of energy-saving lamps replacing incandescent lamps is irreversible.
Country or region
Incandescent lamp screening scheme
The United States
December 18, 2007 through the American power act, from January 2012 to January 2014 phase out the supply of low power incandescent lamps.
Canada
On April 25, 2007, Canada’s ministry of natural resources announced plans to end the supply of incandescent bulbs nationwide by 2012.
The European Union
On March 9, 2007, eu countries reached an agreement to gradually replace high-energy incandescent bulbs with energy-saving lamps within two years. The British government announced plans to scrap traditional tungsten light bulbs by 2011; Italy and France announced plans to ban incandescent light bulbs in 2010 and the Netherlands in 2011.
Australia
On February 20, 2007, the Australian government announced that it would phase out low-power incandescent light bulbs nationwide by 2010, switching to energy-saving bulbs.
New Zealand
On 17 April 2008, New Zealand’s power ministry indicated that New Zealand was considering banning the use of incandescent bulbs from 2009.
Taiwan area
On April 7, 2008, the Taiwan region announced that it would take five years to fully screen incandescent bulbs
Japan
On April 5, 2008, the Japanese government announced that by 2012 it would stop making and supplying energy-intensive incandescent bulbs and replace them with energy-saving ones
South Korea
Stop using incandescent bulbs by the end of 2013
Argentina
Energy-saving lamps will be fully implemented nationwide from December 2007, and incandescent lamps will be phased out by 2011
China
In December 2007, the implementation of financial subsidy criteria for efficient lighting products was started. In July 2009, together with the United Nations development programme (undp) and the global environment facility (gef), we proposed to launch “China’s phased selection of incandescent lamps and accelerated implementation of energy-saving lamps”. The implementation period of the project is from 2009 to 2012.
Compared with halogen fluorescent lamps, the energy-saving lamps (rare earth fluorescent lamps) with rare earth luminescent materials have higher luminous efficiency, better color rendering, and longer life span. Because halogen fluorescent lamps have low luminous power, poor stability, large light decline and low light pass persistence, they are not suitable for the thin tube compact fluorescent lamps with high light efficiency and low cost, which represent the future market. June 1, 2008, the national development and reform commission, general administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine, and arrange the proposed by state certification and accreditation administration of the People’s Republic of China enforcement power power logo products catalog (the third batch) beginning, meanwhile, fluorescent reached level 3 energy efficiency more than talent supply enough, reach level 2 talents achieve energy-saving attestation of energy efficiency and achieve national industrial policy support; In foreign markets, where the European Union has implemented the EuP directive since September 1, 2009, it will be difficult to reach level 2 energy efficiency standards based on the functions of existing halogen fluorescent lamps. From the future development trend of fluorescent lamps, halogen fluorescent lamps will gradually exit the lighting market, replaced by energy-saving lamps and other efficient lighting things.
category
Product name
Product category
Luminescent material
Light-emitting principle
Power (w)
Product features
Quotation (yuan // klumen)
Luminous efficacy (Lm/W)
Average life (h)
Incandescent lamp
The filament
Heat occurs when an electric current passes through a filament, and thermal radiation occurs in visible light.
< 500
6 to 12
< 1000
5
Fluorescent lamp
Halogen fluorescent lamp
T9-t12 straight tube fluorescent lamp; Part T8 straight tube fluorescent lamp and ring fluorescent lamp

Halogen powder
phosphors
The ultraviolet light produced by the electron bombardment of the atom excited the phosphor to glow.
< 500
60-80.
2000-3000.
15

Rare earth fluorescent lamp (energy-saving lamp)
T4, T5 straight fluorescent lamps, compact fluorescent lamps; Part T8 straight tube fluorescent lamp and ring fluorescent lamp

Rare earth luminescent material
< 500
80-120.
> 10000
20
2. Changing market demand for rare earth luminescent materials for energy-saving lamps
At present, the ratio of incandescent lamp, halogen fluorescent lamp and energy-saving lamp in the world is about 4∶3∶1, which is about 8∶9∶1 in China. Energy-saving lamps are the most sophisticated environmental protection and energy-saving lighting products with the application of skills, which is the primary application and implementation goal of implementing energy-saving emission reduction, accelerating the screening of incandescent lamps, and achieving energy-saving lighting. Now, our country is international illume product produces the first place country, in 2009, our country incandescent lamp output value 2.73 billion, fluorescent lamp output value 3.5 billion, during, energy-saving lamp output value is about 3 billion, account for fluorescent lamp total output value 85% above. Therefore, in the face of huge stock market and incremental market, the implementation of the worldwide action of screening incandescent lamps, promoting energy-saving lamps and accelerating the replacement of halogen powder fluorescent lamps will promote the rapid development of energy-saving lamp production in China. It is estimated that by 2013, the output value of incandescent lamps in China will drop to 1.42 billion, and the proportion of energy-saving lamps in fluorescent lamps will rise to more than 92%, with an output value of nearly 7 billion, which is 2.25 times of the output value of energy-saving lamps at that time. Rare earth luminescent materials are the essential raw materials for the production of energy-saving lamps. According to the national rare earth phosphors and lamps cooperation network, the market size of rare earth luminescent materials for energy-saving lamps in China will exceed 12,000 tons in 2013, which is 97.34% more than the market demand in 2009, and the compound annual additive rate reaches 18.52%.
FIG. 2 prediction of the market capacity of fluorescent lamps from 2006 to 2013
FIG. 3 structure change of fluorescent lamps in China from 2006 to 2013
Note: rare earth luminescent materials are used in compact fluorescent lamps and T4 and T5 fluorescent lamps. Halogen powder or rare earth luminescent materials are used in annular fluorescent lamps and T8 fluorescent lamps. With the development of lighting quality, halogen powder has been gradually replaced by rare earth luminescent materials. Halogen powder for t9-t12 fluorescent lamps.

(2) market demand changes in the scope of the developer
1. Development trend of the job market
A. flat panel TV gradually replaces traditional CRT TV
Skills in consumer electronics profession, innovation is the key to drive professional growth factors, visions and digital high-definition flat-panel blend of rapid development, home appliances and the Internet, such as new use such as rendering, greatly promote the color TV set professional development, such as LCD, PDP flat-panel TVS are quickly replace CRT TV, will be the main stream in the future color TV market, in 2009 China’s color TV production, 9965 ten thousand, during which the proportion of flat screen TV is beyond 70%. Overall, now in flat-panel television is still in its primary stage in our country, according to family size calculation at the end of 2009 the flat-panel TV throughout rate is only 28% in our country, the country is just beginning, the flat TV throughout rate is only 13%, considering the base of a huge CRT number and state “cash-for-clunkers”, “home appliances to the countryside” implementation of the implementation of the policy, such as flat-panel TV future market space is huge in our country. In addition, with the recovery of the global economy, China’s color TV export situation has gradually improved. China’s color TV export volume reached 54.01 million units in 2009, up 11.96% year on year. As the global economy continues to improve, China’s flat-panel TV exports are expected to increase. According to the speculation, the spread rate of China’s flat-panel TV will reach more than 90% within 10 years, the future will be China’s flat-panel TV career rapid development period, the output value of 2013 flat-panel TV will reach 138.75 million.

B. Safe addition of notebook computers and LCD display
In recent years, China’s computer and its supporting LCD display output value are adhere to the steady addition, not affected by the financial crisis, especially notebook computers, a total of 146 million in 2009, compared with 2008 added 35.2%, is 2.56 times the output value in 2006. Because notebook computers are fast and light, it is estimated that the output value of notebook computers in China will be close to 300 million in 2013, with an average annual addition rate of 19%.

C. The mobile phone industry continues to increase with the advent of the 3G era
Mobile phone screen is one of the more sophisticated USES of LED backlight category. With the progress of people’s living standard and the spread and development of personal electronic information, the output value of mobile phones in China increased rapidly from 80 million in 2001 to 550 million in 2007, with an average annual growth rate of 37.9%. Affected by the financial crisis, the growth rate of China’s mobile phone industry slowed down significantly in 2008, and the year-on-year growth rate was only 2%. Since 2009, China’s mobile phone production and sales have been on the rise month by month. In December, the monthly output value was up to 102.43% year on year, with a total output of 619 million, nearly 10 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. With the release of 3G license plates in China, mobile phones will enter the era of 3G big screen, and its demand will change from the upgrading of 2G mobile phones to the replacement of 3G mobile phones. It is estimated that the output value of mobile phones in China will reach 880 million in 2013.
2. Changing market demand for rare earth luminescent materials for developing devices
Because CRT TVS will be quickly replaced by flat panel TVS, the market demand for CRT phosphors (about a third of which are rare earth luminescent materials) will decline significantly in the future, and over time demand will tend to a lower constant.
Now, the first flat panel display can be divided into PDP and LCD two. As for PDP, rare-earth luminescent materials are directly used in the production of its screen, and the number of rare-earth luminescent materials is large. For LCD, the screen itself does not emit light, it is necessary to go through the backlight to reach the developing effect, the backlight of LCD is mainly divided into cold cathode fluorescent tube (CCFL) or LED (LED) two, the production process are required to use different amounts of rare earth luminescent materials. Meantime CCFL, as the most sophisticated and the use of LCD back light skills have been large-scale industrialization, because the LED back light in environmental protection and energy saving, color reflects the aspects of advantages, in recent years its instead of CCFL development trend is very significant, but the advantage of capital to rely on low prices, skills, sophisticated, CCFL will continue to adhere to the LCD back light in the next three years the main market position. According to DisplaySearch guess, LED backlight in 2009 in the LCD display saturation rate of 0.5%, by 2013 this number will reach 40%, laptop will be in 2011 all use LED backlight.

The unit demand of rare earth luminescent material for plate display products
project
Liquid crystal TV
Plasma television
Liquid crystal developer
laptop
Mobile phone
Quantity of rare earth luminescent materials per unit product (g)
4.5 ~ 6
100 ~ 125
1.5 ~ 2.5
0.05 ~ 0.6
0.006
Note: the dosage of LCD TV and plasma TV is different due to different scales. LED backlight gradually replaced CCFL backlight in LCD display and notebook computers.

(3) the market demand for the category of special light source changes
Special light source refers to the electric light source used for special lighting, including non-polar lamp, full spectrum lamp, ultraviolet lamp, plant growing lamp and disaster prevention residual light lamp. Modern light source and lighting skills bring “light civilization” to human beings. Special light source plays an important role in satisfying people’s multi-category and multi-use lighting needs. Full spectrum dyeing and printing, which imitates natural light, have higher requirements on the color index of light source. The ultraviolet lamp USES the ultraviolet ray of different wave length to shine, can apply in the human body health care, lure insect to sterilize, judge anti-counterfeiting and so on category; To promote the use of plant growing lamps in agricultural production; In the special light source with the largest proportion of rare earth luminescent materials, rare earth long afterglow luminescent materials products are widely replaced by LED in the application of traffic instructions, the market demand is bound to decline. From 2006 to 2013, the market demand of rare earth luminescent materials for special light sources in China changed as follows:
Follow human science and technology progress and deepening of rare earth elements for discussion, rare earth luminescent material will also use light conversion agricultural films, bioluminescent symbols such as more categories, but because of the particularity of use special light source, it accounts for a relatively small proportion of the total demand of rare-earth luminescence materials, add also is relatively stable, estimates that in the next few years the special light source, with the growth of rare earth luminescent material between 8 ~ 10% (not including rare earth long afterglow luminescence materials).